Monthly sales of a neighbourhood kirana store
Catchment-based micro-sizing — small numbers, sharp logic.
Estimate the monthly sales (GMV) of a typical neighbourhood kirana store in an urban residential area. Micro-guesstimates flip the telescope: instead of starting from India's population, start from the store's catchment.
Catchment
Walkable radius ~300m in a dense residential area ≈ 800 households; ~3 comparable stores split it → ~250 loyal-ish households.
Wallet
Urban middle-class grocery + essentials spend ≈ ₹9,000/HH/month.
Share
Quick-commerce and supermarkets take half; the kirana keeps ~50% — top-ups, credit (khata), urgency → ₹4,500/HH.
GMV
250 × ₹4,500 ≈ ₹11.2 lakh/month, plus walk-by traffic ~10%.
Cross-check
Counter view: ~150 bills/day × ₹250 ≈ ₹11 lakh ✓ — the two views converging is your proof.
How to defend it
Margins make a good extension answer: kiranas run 12–18% gross margin, so this store earns ~₹1.5 lakh/month gross — explaining both why kiranas survive (zero rent if self-owned, family labour) and why q-commerce hurts (it skims the high-margin urgent top-ups).