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Water tankers needed daily in a metro summer

A gap analysis — estimate demand, estimate supply, size the shortfall.

challenging
6 min read
gap-analysispublic-systems

Estimate the number of private water-tanker trips per day in a 10-million metro at summer peak. This is a gap guesstimate: tankers don't serve total demand — they serve the shortfall between municipal supply and need. Size both sides, then convert the gap to trips.

Demand branch up, supply branch down, the gap split between borewells and tankers, then converted to trips and fleet.
1

Demand

Norm ~135 litres/person/day × 10M × 1.15 summer factor + ~20% commercial/institutional ≈ 1,850 MLD (million litres/day).

2

Effective supply

Installed municipal ~1,500 MLD, minus summer reservoir dip (~10%) and distribution losses (~25%) → ~1,200 MLD reaching users.

3

The gap

~650 MLD. Private borewells and storage absorb ~60%; tankers serve the rest ≈ 260 MLD.

4

Trips

Standard tanker = 10,000 L → 260 MLD ÷ 10K ≈ 26,000 trips/day, by roughly 6–7K tankers doing ~4 trips each.

(1,850 − 1,200) × 40% tanker share ÷ 10k L ≈ 26k trips/day ≈ ₹26 cr/day at ₹1,000/trip

How to defend it

Structure-first wins here: announcing "tankers serve the demand-supply gap, so I'll size both sides" is 80% of the marks before any arithmetic. The leakage assumption (~25%) is India-realistic and worth citing — it's often the biggest single term in urban water math.