Public EV charging points in a metro city

A demand-led, first-principles estimate.

moderate

5 min read

first-principles

Estimate the number of public EV charging points needed in a metro of ~10 million people. Build from demand, not from a number you half-remember.

Population → cars → EVs → public-reliant share → sessions → ÷ throughput. Every node carries its number.

Vehicles

~10M people, ~3.5 per household → ~2.8M households. Assume ~30% own a car → ~0.85M cars.

EV share

Assume ~10% are EVs today → ~85,000 EVs.

Charging need

Most charge at home; assume ~40% rely partly on public charging → ~34,000 EVs needing public access.

Throughput

One public point serves ~8–10 charging sessions/day. If each such EV needs ~2 public sessions/week → ~9,700 sessions/day citywide.

Points

~9,700 sessions/day ÷ ~9 sessions/point/day ≈ ~1,100 public charging points.

0.85M cars × 10% EV = 85k EVs → 40% public-reliant ≈ 34k → ~2 sessions/wk ≈ 9.7k/day ÷ 9 per point ≈ ~1.1k points.

How to defend it

State every assumption out loud and flag the two that move the answer most (EV share and public-reliance %). Offer a sensitivity: double EV share → ~2,200 points.

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