Smartphones sold in India per year
A replacement-cycle estimate — the stock-and-flow workhorse.
Estimate annual smartphone unit sales in India. The elegant route is stock and flow: sales = installed base ÷ replacement cycle + first-time buyers. Resist jumping to "X% of population buys one."
Installed base
1.4B people; smartphone users ≈ 45–50% → ~650M active devices.
Replacement cycle
Budget phones ~3 yrs, premium ~4–5 yrs; blended ~4 years → 650 ÷ 4 ≈ 160M replacement units.
First-time buyers
Feature-phone-to-smartphone upgrades and new young users ≈ 15–20M/yr (slowing as penetration matures).
Total
160 + 18 ≈ ~175M units a year.
How to defend it
Flag the two swing assumptions: the replacement cycle (each ±0.5 yr moves the answer ~20M) and the installed base. Offer the cross-check: actual Indian market shipments run ~150M — your number should land the same order of magnitude, and the gap signals a lengthening cycle.