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App-based cab rides per day in a metro

Demand build with a supply-side reconciliation.

moderate
5 min read
two-way-buildtransport

Estimate daily app-based cab rides (Uber/Ola-style, four-wheelers) in a 10-million metro. Do it demand-side, then reconcile against driver supply — if your demand number implies each driver does 40 rides a day, your demand number is wrong.

Both builds unpacked to their leaves — when two independent trees land within 10%, the number is defensible.
1

User base

10M people → smartphone + affordability + habit filter → ~1.5M monthly ride-hailers.

2

Frequency

Frequent users (daily commuters, airport-heavy) 20% × ~1.2 rides/day; occasional 80% × ~0.15/day → ~540K rides/day.

3

Supply check

~45K active cabs; a full-time driver completes 12–15 rides/day but part-timers drag the average to ~12 → ceiling ~540K. The builds agree.

4

Range

Quote 5–5.5 lakh/day, noting it doubles on rainy Fridays and halves on holiday mornings.

Demand: 300k×1.2 + 1.2M×0.15 = 540k · Supply: 45k × 12 = 540k → ≈ 5.4 lakh rides/day

How to defend it

The two-sided reconciliation is the move interviewers remember. If pushed on auto-rickshaws/bike taxis, clarify scope upfront — "app-based four-wheeler" — scope discipline is free marks.